Iowa, ISU still look good in bowl picture

Two bright spots came from our survey of bowl projections this week.

Iowa still has a soft place to land despite back-to-back losses and Iowa State is bowl eligible. (That doesn't mean bowl guaranteed, but the projections look good.)

Iowa -- Fiesta Bowl contender

The Hawkeyes are still a very solid contender for a BCS bowl and a gritty, overtime loss to Ohio State didn't hurt their chances over the weekend.

Watch out for Penn State. It's a consensus that a second Big 10 team will get a BCS spot and only two teams per conference can get an invite. Ohio State gets the first of two available. Bruce Feldman at ESPN thinks the Nittany Lions will sneak into the BCS and bump Iowa to the Capital One Bowl.

Oklahoma State, if they win out, could grab an at-large BCS spot. A Big 12 north upset over Texas in the conference championship game would give that team the automatic BCS berth and force the Longhorns to use an at-large spot as well.

Those are things to root against.

A loss by TCU or Boise State would probably give Iowa some breathing room. So would a Michigan State win over Penn State on Saturday. The Big East shouldn't be a concern. We don't see bowl officials taking a Pitt or Cincinnati over Iowa.

So, here is our survey of projections for the Hawkeyes:

* CBS - Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4 (Glendale, Ariz.) vs. Boise State

* ESPN, Mark Schlabach - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* FOX, through Scout/College Football News - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* Sporting News, Matt Hayes - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* Rivals/Yahoo! -- Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* USA Today -- Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* Sporting News, Dave Curtis - Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU

* NBC sports, through College Football Talk's John Tamanaha - Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU

* ESPN, Bruce Feldman - Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1, (Orlando) vs. Mississippi

Note: ESPN's Big 10 blogger Adam Rittenberg moved Iowa over Penn State this week and has the Hawkeyes going to the Fiesta Bowl against a "BCS team."

Iowa State -- Seventh win would help

There's some question about whether the Big 12 will have enough spots for all of the bowl eligible teams in the conference.

If all of the Big 12 bowl spots are taken, Iowa State could go elsewhere as an at-large team, but all seven-win teams have to be chosen before a 6-6 team is invited. That makes the rivalry game Saturday against Missouri especially important.

Here's what to look for:

Kansas State has six wins, but two are against an FCS (1-AA) teams. They can only count one. If they lose to the Cornhuskers, Kansas State will not be bowl eligible and that may open up a spot for Iowa State in the Big 12 pecking order.

Oklahoma State is mentioned as a candidate for the Fiesta Bowl (probably over Boise State, not Iowa). They'd have to win at Oklahoma over the Thanksgiving weekend for BCS bowl consideration, but if they get in, that moves the rest of the Big 12 teams up the bowl pecking order and and may free up a spot for the Cyclones.

The best case scenario for Iowa State fans is Oklahoma State in the Fiesta, Nebraska over Kansas State this week and, of course a Cyclone win at Missouri Saturday.

With that in mind, most analysts give the Cyclones a place to land in their projections.

* ESPN, Mark Schlabach - Texas Bowl, Dec. 31 (Houston) vs. Navy

* ESPN, Bruce Feldman - Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26 (Detroit) vs. Northern Illinois

* FOX, through Scout/College Football News - Insight Bowl, Dec. 31 (Tempe, Ariz) vs. Minnesota

* CBS - Independence Bowl, Dec. 28 (Shreveport, La.) vs. South Carolina

* NBC sports, through College Football Talk's John Tamanaha - Independence Bowl vs. Arkansas

* Sporting News, Dave Curtis - Independence Bowl vs. Georgia

* Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel - Independence Bowl vs. Kentucky

* ESPN's Big 12 blogger Tim Griffin has Iowa State in the Independence Bowl vs. an SEC team. Matt Hayes at the Sporting News only did BCS game projections.

* Rivals/Yahoo! and USA Today think Iowa State is staying home.