Black Friday arrives:Expert sees steady sales for Spencer merchants

(Photo by Michael Fischer) Shoppers check out at the J.C. Penny store at the Southpark Mall in Spencer. Aggressive promotions by merchants both locally and nationally have tried to lure consumers into stores to offset a sluggish economy. Most local retailers were optimistic as the traditional start of the Christmas selling season began as early as 4 a.m. Friday.

Dry streets and mild temperatures greeted holiday shoppers in Spencer, where foot traffic was brisk and parking spaces were hard to come by.

It was business -- as usual -- for retailers and shoppers who wanted to take advantage of the early-morning bargains on Black Friday. The national worries of company layoffs, tighter credit, and disappearing retirement funds didn't appear to take a drastic bite out of the retail economy in northwest Iowa.

"Our business has been good," said Al Phillips, manager of J.C. Penney. "We've had a lot of traffic through. People are certainly shopping for the door-busters and the loss leaders. That is what's bringing them into the store. I would say traffic is every bit as good as last year. I think people are being more selective than last year."

Dr. Ernie Goss, an economics professor at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., expects Spencer merchants to fare better than their counterparts in population centers around the country.

Goss coordinates two monthly surveys. One measures the economic outlook of Iowa bank CEOs. The other is a survey of purchasing managers. Both of the surveys are showing softer growth for Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska.

"There's just too many economic headwinds," he said. "Although, some towns like Spencer are going to hold up better than towns located in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and other places that have been harder hit by the economic downturn. Farm income has been pretty strong. Now, the best thing going for us is: Gasoline prices are down. That's going to help."

Blended gas was $1.79 per gallon Friday afternoon in Spencer compared to prices exceeding $4 per gallon earlier in the year.

While the amount of spending has remained stable, Phillips does see a change in the kinds of purchases at J.C. Penney. Customers appear to be making more basic choices for holiday gift-giving this year.

"There is a tendency to thrifty in what they're buying, so basics are what is selling," Phillips said.

Goss is seeing the same pattern throughout northwest Iowa.

"Electronics will do better, of course, but that has been the case for many years," he said. "We'll see a return to some of the less frivolous gifts."

Gifts associated with energy conservation could do better than normal, according to Goss.

"I'm not sure I'd welcome a gift like that, but I think we're certainly in a time where you might see more of those types of gifts," he said.

While retail sales in major population centers like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Miami will be down by as much as 5 percent, Goss expects communities like Spencer to maintain flat sales and could go up 1 percent or more.

"I think there is going to be more of a propensity to shop locally," Goss said. "Even though gasoline prices are down, I think people are just being more judicious this year in their shopping, which just means they're going to be less likely to go to the distant cities to shop more. They are more likely to shop in town and online."

Goss' observation includes Connie Lunbeck of Royal, who usually focuses much of her shopping in the Spencer area.

"It's about the same for me," she said. "It's not going to change a whole lot."

She'll occasionally go out-of-state for some purchases, but says her work schedule and the weather will keep her closer to town this year. She also thinks local merchants will have the items she's looking for.

Kyle Mechler of Ames was in town for the Thanksgiving holiday. He says his wife does a majority of the shopping, but adds: "This year I have more money, so I am going to spend more money."

"I work at a state job. My job is secure," he said.

He typically does his shopping online, but planned to add to the local economy Friday afternoon.

"I'm actually going to go, after lunch today, and go to a few places here in town, which I guess I wouldn't normally do," he said. "I know a lot of people probably feel a doom-and-gloom approach to things. It's understandable, I suppose, but it doesn't really apply to me."

Goss says there are several things local retailers can do to overcome concerns about the national economy.

"Certainly, they're already doing much of it, I'm sure," he said. "It's sort of like a get-out-the-vote message."

The get-out-the-shopping message should come from retailers forming consortiums where they advertise together and talk about shopping locally and get the chamber of commerce on board. He encourages marketing that, for example, encourages people in Okoboji to drive south to Spencer instead of driving north to Minneapolis.

"Merchants don't need me to tell them that," he said. "They're probably already doing those sorts of things."

Residents in outlying communities may not be fully aware of what is available in Spencer, Goss said. He also encouraged restaurants to stay open later to capture sales at the end of a day of shopping.

"There are some opportunities," he said. "We've had too long a period of high oil prices and high gasoline prices. It has really dug into people's savings and their spendable funds. So for the judicious consumer out there, they are saying: Why drive to Des Moines? Why drive to Minneapolis? Why drive to Omaha? Spend your money here and save."

On a less optimistic note for the area, Goss is concerned about a reduction in charitable giving, saying "even well-to-do people, and maybe especially well-to-do people, may feel a little bit under the gun this year."