
David Kruse
David Kruse is chairman of the board of CommStock Investments Inc., author and producer of The CommStock Report, an agriculture commentary and market analysis available daily by radio and by subscription on DTN/FarmDayta and the internet. CommStock Investments is a registered CTA, as well as an introducing brokerage.
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This. Is. Not. Free. Speech. (1/14/21)The FBI has classified the rioters that participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol as "terrorists." The reason that they can do that is that the thugs did a great job of sharing what they did via social media. The FBI has evidence of the crimes on tape, so to speak. ...
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Pandemic's effect on food, restaurant sector (1/7/21)After a Christmas discussion with my son-in-law, who is trained in culinary arts and previously worked as an executive chef for multiple restaurants in the Des Moines area, I asked for his input on the implications of the pandemic on the food/restaurant sector … as they use a lot of our agriculture production in various ways. Multiply what he says nationwide. Read below...
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Pandemic puts food supply chain to the test (12/23/20)The COVID-19 pandemic that has ravaged the nation has put our food supply chain to the test. While it rocked and rolled for a period of time, it responded with some remarkable resiliency to the pressures and challenges. The food supply chain that is functioning today is much different than the one preceding the pandemic. ...
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Trump's Operation Warp Speed (12/17/20)“Operation Warp Speed” did give COVID-19 vaccine a boost in reaching the public but it was far from being the “Manhattan Project,” in terms of government producing a new technological achievement. Pfizer is the first company to get a vaccine cleared through FDA and the contribution of the federal government to it reaching the regulatory process could be termed as, "not much."...
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Pandemic of infamy (12/10/20)On Dec. 7, 1941, 2,403 Americans died in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Yamamoto wrote, "I fear that all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with resolve." He understood how that Americans would respond, with an immediate declaration of war on Japan and Yamamoto didn't live to see his prediction come true. He knew of the resources, both human and physical, that this country could bring to bear when focused on an enemy...
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It's hard to fathom the quickness of change in the economy (12/3/20)I did not sense a great change in November but the Creighton Rural Main Street Index took an unhealthy dip, falling from 53.2 in October to 46.8 this month. Did anyone get the license number of the truck that just hit us? The Farm Economic Confidence Barometer hit a new high recently. ...
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It's a health care crisis (11/19/20)It's after Nov. 4. The president had promised that we would no longer be talking about the COVID pandemic because it would just go away after the election. Has any prediction ever been more wrong? COVID positives are up near 200,000 per day. At that rate the country in on track toward herd immunity without vaccines. ...
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Reason that rural won (11/12/20)Why did people vote the way that they did? Depends on who “they” is? I can tell you why many rural constituents voted the way that they did. My county in northwest Iowa voted 66% for Donald Trump, 2 out of every 3 people met on the street voted for Trump. ...
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Election Day for the republic (11/5/20)The election mechanics appear to have gone off very well. Only losers and Russians would complain. I think that it is good for everyone to vote. Not everyone shares that opinion. A lot of effort in this country gets put into suppressing targeted areas and groups from exercising voting rights. ...
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Post 2020 election predictions (10/29/20)A Democratic sweep of the election would fix some problems and create some new ones. I am not delusional in thinking that the 2020 election is the elixir to cure all that ails the agriculture sector. The election comes first and the policy later. So, what is going to change if the Democrats sweep this election … controlling the White House and both bodies of Congress? First off, they will enact whatever COVID-19 aid/stimulus bill that they have determined is needed. ...
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The pandemic of this century (10/22/20)COVID-19 is the “China virus.” That is where it originated from. It became the pandemic of this century infecting the circumference of the world spreading illness, death and economic destruction testing each country's ability to manage and cope. The U.S., having some of the most developed institutional infrastructure and advanced medical resources would be expected to have handled the pandemic well. ...
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The Social Dilemma (10/15/20)I guess that I must be almost the exception today as I made a conscious choice a long time ago to limit my participation in the social media. I have never had a Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Pinterest, TikTok or any other social media account. I have had many reasons for not doing so. ...
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Suicide by arrogance (10/8/20)No, I am not going to be nice ... I am not feeling the least bit nice about anything pertaining to the pandemic. I sincerely hope that President Donald Trump recovers, as I want him alive and cognizant when he goes to prison, but if he does not his death could be ruled "suicide by arrogance."...
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COVID-19 cases climbing (10/1/20)As of Sept. 20, the top six states where new COVID-19 cases were climbing most and staying higher were North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Arkansas Oklahoma and Iowa. Of those states, new deaths were also increasing in North Dakota and South Dakota. ...
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Presidential farming policies (9/24/20)Now is the time when the agriculture media tries to inform farmers of the differing policies of the two presidential candidates. Farm polls show that farmers have already made up their minds favoring Donald Trump. FarmProgress.com asked the campaigns to respond to 10 different questions dealing with the usual subjects except for one — taxes. For some reason they left out something important to me. I think that their tax policy is more important than some of the questions that they did ask.
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COVID-19: Iowa looks pretty stupid today (9/17/20)Dr. Austin Baeth specializes in internal medicine at Unity Point Methodist Hospital in Des Moines. That is the same hospital that my granddaughter now works for as a genetics counselor. She was watching Baeth on CNN in her office telling the world what was going on in Iowa with the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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Plan C: Finale (9/10/20)In sequential reports we have outlined how the global competition for agriculture exports has ramped up and that the U.S. has lost the "initiative" that we once had in soybean, wheat and corn export markets. Brazil, Ukraine and Russia have capitalized on structural issues scaling up production using currency advantages to grow market share at our expense. ...
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PLAN C: Part 4- Our Currency Disadvantage (9/3/20)Lula da Silva was elected president of Brazil and served from January 2003 through 2010. Da Silva was a leftist who ran 3 times for president before getting elected. There were many in Brazil who thought that he was a communist and worse, and the markets there responded very defensively to the prospect of his election. ...
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Plan C — Part 3 (8/27/20)In my son Matthew's Brazilian safrinha corn production costs laid out in Part 2 of our special report Plan C, I had Matthew attribute a percentage of the rent/land cost to corn relative to the percent of revenue of the two crops, corn following soybeans. ...
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Plan C: Safrinha production costs — Part 2 (8/20/20)My son, Matthew Kruse, has grown corn in Brazil although it was single crop corn in Bahia. His in-laws have grown both single and second crop safrinha corn in Minas Gerais. He has many contacts who grow safrinha in the Mato Grosso. I read recently where Ag Resources said that Brazilian corn farmers were locking in a 50% return on 2021 safrinha corn production. ...
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Plan C — Part 1 (8/13/20)Do you remember Plan B? I was concerned about the growing competitiveness of Brazil 20 years ago. They were the up and coming soybean producing competitor. My idea was to use the loan rate in the farm program to support our soybean price and roll acreage from corn into soybeans so that we would temporarily flood the global market with cheap soybeans and crush Brazils fledgling soybean industry. ...
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We do need a reset (8/6/20)Right, wrong or otherwise there is a public perception out there that U.S. farmers are a Trump constituency that has been subsidized for political reasons with taxpayer money. I believe that there were valid economic reasons for payments that we got but not all of the support was bipartisan or funded by Congress. ...
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Ring in our nose — Part 1 (7/30/20)A businessperson, when informed that they were eligible for a PPP loan/grant, expressed their surprise to me over getting government money with the exclamation, "Just like the farmers?" Yeah ... just like the farmers. Small business has seen farmers get subsidy checks for years without being included. ...
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Monument hating extreme (7/23/20)President Donald Trump is finally getting some political help from the monument hating extreme that is out there. They are going too far in their protest of monuments and he will benefit from the backlash. Polls show that the majority of Americans, 58%, say that they should knock it off, this defacing and removing historical statues. ...
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Trump's proclamation that 'we are in a good place' is insane (7/16/20)Dr. Anthony Fauci lamented that states opened too soon. He is pretty much being muzzled right now by the White House as he is an inconvenient truth they do not want to be reminded of. He is a testament to those that made the poor decisions when they blew off his advice when reopening. ...
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Trump's biofuel, trade policies are the worst (7/9/20)President Donald Trump has had the worst biofuel and trade policies that I have ever seen and came with the most farm subsidies ever because of it. When elected I thought "well at least his ethanol policy would be better." I was not thrilled with ethanol policy under Barack Obama. ...
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Racism in America: What has changed? (7/2/20)Many know that our home office in Royal almost doubles as a Civil War/ Theodore Roosevelt museum. It is nothing overly extensive but I do have some original items. I had long displayed a replica Confederate battle flag in one corner of my office opposite the U.S. ...
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What does the world really think of us? (6/25/20)We are still the world's only superpower but in the past few years we have pulled back from our previous role as leader of the global order to an “American First” geopolitical strategy. Our old allies in the previous global order are alarmed with us saying that they no longer recognize us. ...
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Agriculture and socialism (6/18/20)I think you can ask most any farmer if he wants socialism and you will get a "No"…"He!! No" or something even more negative than that answer from them. They have it in their narrative of the country that the urban liberal Dems are socialists who live in their basement and expect the government to take care of them. ...
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A watershed week (6/11/20)Last week was a watershed week that I think will take months or even years to truly understand the significance of. I know that I am still processing. It started out with an event that I think most of the country had the same reaction to with the public execution of George Floyd and by the end of the week it had devolved into a raging culture war where everyone had retreated into their prospective pre-established political camps. ...
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Peaceful protestors teargassed to clear for photo-op (6/4/20)The headline, "Trump has peaceful protestors teargassed to clear them for photo-op,” was likely the headline of the week. He praised peaceful protestors while ordering his troops, actually having Attorney General Bill Barr give the orders, to fire rubber bullets, tear gas and physically attack peaceful protestors in front of the White House, who were breaking no laws to be there, all the while touting that he is a law and order president...
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The world is turning upside down (5/28/20)For most of my life the U.S. agriculture sector has been feeding the world. It has been the cutting edge of innovative, sustainability and productivity for food production that the rest of the world envied. Granted, we have some unusually exceptional resources and natural logistics in the heartland that has given us the competitive advantage as the bread-basket of the world. ...
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Overreaction to meat industry structure (5/21/20)A Feedstuffs magazine headline read "Ag economists warn against overreaction to meat industry structure." What does that mean? The livestock and packing industries have been in a constant state of restructuring for decades that has resulted in concentrating the market leverage with packers. ...
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Pork Chops vs. People (5/14/20)One of the ways to determine what is fake news and what is not, is when the media writes about something that you know the facts about so that you know what the truth is. Were they accurate or not? The New York Times wrote an article recently, "Pork Chops vs. ...
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A story of what packing plants have been going through (4/30/20)A recent CommStock report, "Test all packing plant workers and their families" brought out a response from an industry insider telling me that testing is exactly what they are doing or attempting to do. For purposes of explanation I am going to make you the top-level management of a packing plant so that we can tell the story of what you have been going through...
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US energy security under attack, ethanol industry listed as a casualty (4/23/20)I am a little surprised that there has not been more concern expressed over the ramification of everything going on relative to our national security, both general and energy security. In another update on the USS Theodore Roosevelt … the investigation now leads them to believe that the ship did not pick up COVID-19 during their port call in Vietnam but from the flight crew. ...
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Stay lucky (4/16/20)We are so very lucky to live where we do. We have roofs over our heads, living mostly in single-family dwellings. We are not stuffed in crowded apartment buildings or worse yet in highly concentrated population areas where folks are on top of one another. ...
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War of the world (4/9/20)A few days ago, President Donald Trump brought up the expectations for mortality from COVID-19 in the U.S. in his press conference, claiming to have just seen the numbers for the first time. If true, then CommStock Report subscribers had a look at them before the president of the U.S. ...
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Demand is plunging — outlook for agriculture (4/2/20)Do you know what our biggest problem is? Let me tell you. Low prices cure low prices. At least that is how the market is supposed to work. Our problem however, is that COVID-19 short-circuits market signals disconnecting critical market forces so that despite low prices, consumers cannot access markets to take advantage of low prices offered them. ...
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This will be a disaster worse than the trade war (3/26/20)When U.S. Airways flight 1549 took off from LaGuardia airport in January 2009 piloted by Captain Chesley Sullenberger, "Sully," it was a nice day and he had every reason to expect that he would reach his destination. While my life was not in danger, I felt a little bit like Sully must have felt that morning in the past few weeks relative to the corn market. ...
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Crude oil price war (3/19/20)Russia and the Saudis have hit us when we (our shale oil and biofuel industries) were vulnerable from a global recession with their crude oil price war. Their crude oil price war will leave a mark. The global economic slowdown will reduce world oil consumption by 10 million barrels a day or more. ...
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Food shaming — Part 2 of 2 (3/12/20)As I passed through the Atlanta airport the other day, I grabbed lunch at Panda Express. I noticed next to their menu a big sign declaring how they only use organic honey. According to the USDA, the main prerequisite for being considered organic honey versus natural honey is that the flowers the bees use for nectar cannot be sprayed with any chemicals nor can the bees be located adjacent to an area that may have potential contact with chemical use. ...
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Food shaming — Part 1 (3/8/20)Imagine for a moment that you work in a highly competitive, trillion-dollar industry. You are but one of a thousand competitors, vying for attention from millions of uninformed and unsuspecting consumers. Your objective is to make your product stand out among a large sea of fairly consistent, uniform products. ...
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Should democratic socialism be expanded? (2/27/20)One of the best stories to come out of the Iowa caucuses had to do with Elizabeth Warren. She, of course, has been promoting canceling student loans up to $50,000 per person and was offering free college tuition paid by the government. An Iowan approached her after one of her events and told her that his daughter was graduating from college and that due to his saving for her tuition that she would not have any student loans. ...
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Electoral college is under attack (2/21/20)You have heard criticism that the Democrats were trying to overturn the votes of 63 million who elected Trump in the last election via impeachment. I don't think that the GOP-controlled Senate will let that happen however they seem to have missed the fact that the votes of 63 million overturned the votes of 66 million in 2016. ...
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Economy after the 2020 election (2/13/20)How would the economy have performed if Hillary Clinton would have been elected president? Assuming that she would have governed like she said during the campaign I think that it was very likely that we would be recovering from another recession about now. ...
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The canary in the climate change coal mine just died — Part 2 (1/30/20)Climate change, CO2 man-made influence is no longer a debate. The consensus of evidence has become overwhelming. The Pentagon, NOAA, NASA, insurance companies, corporations, investors and even the WSJ have all moved beyond debating whether man-made climate change is a threat to human existence to how to modify our climate by altering practices so as to reduce the negative human influence on the climate. ...
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The canary in the climate change coal mine just died — Part 1 (1/23/20)Climate change deniers in the U.S. probably should keep an eye on what is happening in Australia politically as a result of the historic wildfires that are ravaging the country. Australia had to mobilize military reserves to handle the relocation of people resulting from an area twice the size of Switzerland (25 million acres) or two West Virginias being on fire. ...
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Democratic presidential candidates: Who can beat Trump? (1/16/20)We get an up close and personal view of the Democratic presidential candidates because of our Iowa caucuses. There are frankly not a lot of rural Democrats where I live in the state and unless something dramatic happens Iowa will not be in play for the general election. ...
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A painful 2019: Looking back at the last decade (1/9/20)2019 was not what I would call a year that I want to remember or have fond memories over at the end, given my crops were planted on time yet still generated crop insurance claims. It doesn't matter what date they are planted on if the hail storm is intense enough. A high APH and RAMP crop insurance helped save the bottom line. So, let's shift and look back at the last decade of the 2010s as something being less painful to reminisce over while we try to forget 2019...
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Ignorance on CAFOs (1/2/20)I come from a livestock family and married into one as well. When I grew up, we had dairy, layers, hogs and cattle on feed. I, myself, raised hogs and cattle. We adapted over time. The dairy went out first with the requirement for bulk milk handling the year that I graduated from high school. ...
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Phase 1 of trade deal is totally done (12/26/19)According to USTR Robert Lighthizer, phase one of a trade deal with China is "totally done." I hope that the Chinese can come to Iowa, if not for the signing then at least to mend fences and nail down our new commercial trade relationship. A pivotal choice was made here with this trade agreement. ...
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Floods of memories from ag depression of the 1980s (12/20/19)The recent death of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker brought back a flood of memories from the ag depression of the 1980s. It was life changing to have lived through something like that. I started farming in 1973 when we were in the throes of an inflation cycle. ...
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Agriculture revenue prospects (12/12/19)Unless something changes fundamentally, agriculture revenue prospects do not look any better next year although it would be hard for the weather to be much worse. That doesn't seem to matter according to the Department of Agriculture who can always make the acres rise even though prevent-plant was a record. ...
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Why buy a fake burger? (12/5/19)Whenever I go to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, I make it a point to get a burger at Fuddruckers. I took my prospective son-in-law along who has trained in culinary school as a chef and he declared the burger to be one of the best he has ever had. I am in mourning as they closed the Fuddruckers in West Des Moines. My daughter in law is not a burger-fan but even she makes an exception for Fuddruckers. That is enough of a free commercial...
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Why Democrats will lose in rural America ... again — Part 2 of 2 (11/28/19)Democrats seem to think that what they need to sell farmers on is the need for cover crops and carbon sequestration. These are as much just talking points as anything else, politically correct agriculture, but if they are more than that, we should soon find out as adoption is tested. Farmers will accept innovation and incentives but force them to do something and you will lose them...
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Why Democrats will lose rural America ... again ― Part 1 of 2 (11/21/19)President Donald Trump has not been good for U.S. Agriculture. No president has had worse trade, biofuel and immigration policies that impact the agriculture sector than this one. It was predicted accurately by me. I was told that I was wrong, but time and events have proved otherwise. ...
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What little difference a century can make (11/14/19)Postscript from the previous columns: I was most impressed by the quality and sophistication that the editors of Successful Farming and Farm Journal magazines put into their periodicals nearly a century ago. They were lengthy, thoughtful and intelligent on many topics. ...
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What little difference a century can make — Part 3 of 3 (11/7/19)I shared that both of the October 1928 issues of Successful Farming and Farm Journal magazines had ads enticing U.S. farmers into moving to Canada for better land, prices and opportunity and so on. How did that work out for those who took the bait? I can only assume not so well after the Smoot-Hawley tariff act. ...
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What little difference a century can make ― Part 2 of 3 (10/31/19)The May 1927 issue of Farm Journal claimed to have 1.4 million subscribers making its readership larger than Successful Farming magazine's. It was smaller than SF magazine at only 74 pages. Farm Journal claimed to have been publishing for 57 years in 1927. ...
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What little difference a century can make — Part 1 of 3 (10/24/19)I have been fascinated by moments in history when something material took place of note that for whatever reason, disappeared so that almost no one today is cognoscente that it had existed. Few people have ever heard of a Winchester Store. They know of Winchester guns and ammo but in the 1920s Winchester built and operated a franchise hardware store system that reached 6,400 hardware stores before they filed bankruptcy in January 1930, a commercial failure of the Great Depression...
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The CommStock Report (10/17/19)I am bullish. Those are three words that I enjoy. I turned bullish corn last May when I told you to "load the boat" but was cautions yet over turning bullish commodities in general because of a cycle low that was due in commodities this fall. I think that low has been set and that we will see gains in commodity prices into 2020. ...
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The tough guy challenge (10/10/19)President Donald Trump is airing campaign TV ads here in Iowa where the punch line is that he sells himself as "The Tough Guy." No doubt about it ... he has a look (scowl), a swagger, a mouth and a bad attitude where he will go to any length or depth to take on anybody he sees as a challenge, denigrating them in the meanest terms. ...
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The CommStock Report (10/4/19)Staff Sgt. Clinton Romesha won the Medal of Honor for his combat in Afghanistan in 2009 for "conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty.” He has written the book "Red Platoon" to explain what happened to his unit there and he was our guest for a public speaking event at the Clay County Fair recently. I had the honor spending some time with him and interviewing him there...
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Farmers, not Trump, getting killed by refinery waivers (9/26/19)Everyone that comes out of a meeting with President Donald Trump thinks that they had a "great" meeting and that he is on their side. He is the greatest BSer and is best at misleading folks that he is their ally when the only side he is ever really on is his own political self-interest...
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Agricultural dependence on immigrant labor (9/19/19)U.S. agriculture is one of the most immigrant dependent industries in the U.S. for its labor force. Immigrants have historically been the labor engine for agriculture over the history of the nation regardless whether the servitude was involuntary or voluntary over that time. Only the ethnic groups and race of immigrants providing that labor force has changed. Today it is dominantly Hispanic with some Eastern European, African and Asian contribution. They tend not to be white...
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The CommStock Report (9/12/19)What are you going to plant next year ... that is profitable? President Donald Trump's trade war has destroyed the soybean and cotton markets. Wheat is no better. Those that planted soybeans this year out of a desire to maintain crop rotations will be maintaining the burdensome carryover at considerable expense and if they continue to plant soybeans in 2020 the carryover will get worse. ...
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The CommStock Report (9/5/19)When President Donald Trump thinks that he can order U.S. companies to leave their businesses in China, that is not free enterprise capitalism ... it is fascism. That is the kind of government interference and autocratic dictatorship of commercial activity that has only been practiced throughout history by fascist regimes. ...
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An ancestral tour (8/29/19)What do Canadians think of Americans? They will not say that one of their traits is to be extremely polite. If they have nothing good to say, they remain quiet. They do note that they often hear of Americans saying that they would like to move to Canada. ...
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The chaos is just beginning (8/22/19)Who is President Donald Trump going to blame a recession on? According to Fortune Magazine, the length of the current economic expansion has been record-breaking, lasting 121 months from June 2009 through July 2019 surpassing the second longest expansion of 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001. The reason was Trump's tax cut coming late in the business cycle which gave the economy another boost just as the recovery was tiring...
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No challenge more important than climate change (8/15/19)CBSN interviewed a Nebraska farmer who gave them the quote ... "I'm not a climate change guy, but. ...” That quote could be finished more than one way: "But for the weather we have been having." "But for what I have seen in my lifetime." "But for the frequency of crop insurance claims increasing." "But for the bomb cyclone." "But for the fact I am a Republican." Or "But for the fact I would get razed at the coffee shop if I admitted to believing in climate change."...
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My history with Roundup and my life on the farm — Part 4 (8/8/19)You start with some assumptions and compare them to what you know. There have been three lawsuits in which California juries have awarded damages to plaintiffs whose lawyers have successfully argued that their clients contracted cancer from contact with Roundup/glyphosate herbicide. ...
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My history with Roundup and life on the farm — Part 3 (8/1/19)Every day I do a 40-minute commute through Clay and Dickinson counties in Iowa and besides the uneven crops this year what sticks out that is most apparent is the pristine weed control. Weeds are universally absent in the corn and soybean fields that look picture perfect creating the appearance that everyone is a great farmer here. There are a few milk-weeds in the ditches for the monarch butterflies but the ditches are clean of weeds too...
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The history of Roundup and my life on the farm — Part 2 (7/25/19)The reason that I am sharing my history of Roundup and life on the farm is that I and several family members and CommStock clients and friends participated in the filming of a documentary on the safety of Roundup/glyphosate. A documentary producer from California, Ariana Victor, and a three-man film crew spent most of a weekend here filming discussions between farmers, seed dealers, a farm manager, health care practitioner, a water quality specialist and Corn Growers board member on the topic of Roundup, safety and what its use means to the agriculture sector.. ...
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My History with RoundUp and Life on the Farm (7/18/19)Part 1 of a Series I was born in 1952 in Spencer, Iowa and my life on the farm near Royal, Iowa started before the Green Revolution. I went to college at SDSU in 1970 studying Agronomy and read how we were on the cusp of a worldwide famine due to a population explosion and that Agriculture as we knew it would be helpless to increase productivity enough to avoid it. ...
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Things that really inflame the president (7/11/19)I see two things that President Donald Trump is really inflamed over that are obviously of extreme importance to him. One is the Federal Reserve increase in interest rates slowing his economic parade of growth. He is adamant in turning that around and jawboning the Fed into reducing interest rates to further support his strong economy. He realizes that his trade war weighs on the U.S. economy even though he says the opposite. He needs lower interest rates to offset that...
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Politicians should not be in charge of Federal Reserve (7/4/19)I will give it to President Donald Trump that he understands economic stimulus. There are essentially three kinds of economic stimulus: fiscal stimulus, regulatory stimulus and monetary policy. His tax cut was, of course, the fiscal kind. On the regulatory front, perception is as strong as reality and Trump oozes the perception that he cuts red tape. ...
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Farmers are making national news now (6/28/19)Farmers are making the national news now ... in some good ways and some bad depending on perspective. The scope and magnitude of this spring wet weather event is starting to be understood by more people. Farmers are beginning to figure out that this was more than your garden variety regional planting delay and that it encompassed the entire U.S. Corn Belt and surrounding fringe areas. Words like "historical" and "unprecedented" should be used...
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True war heroes (6/20/19)I went on eBay.com and bought a new USS John McCain baseball cap. I plan to wear it to honor John McCain who was a naval pilot shot down in Vietnam, captured there as a prisoner of war, who is a war hero, later becoming a profile in courage as a U.S. ...
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The CommStock Report (6/13/19)There are a lot of people, businesses and entities that were pretty shaken up over President Donald Trump's plan to intimidate and essentially extort Mexico into shutting off our border to refugees coming from Central America. The U.S. and Mexican state departments met to discuss what Mexico had to do in order to make this new tariff threat go away, allegedly coming up with a plan that Trump claims has not all been made public. ...
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Conflict with Iran is no joke (6/6/19)There is a joke that goes something like: “The stock market is crashing on the announcement by NASA that an extinction size asteroid had been tracked on a collision course with the earth in a few days, but rebounded 400 points late session on a 25% increase in Apple earnings.” That is not a lot different than how the market traded recently on news that the trade war with China was being ramped up with more tariffs. ...
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How Trump stays president in 2020 (5/30/19)"It's the economy stupid" was the mantra for the Bill Clinton campaign to get him reelected to a second term as president, despite his many flaws. Donald Trump will modify that argument for his reelection slightly to, "Given the best economy in the history of the U.S. ...
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President Trump … why did you betray ethanol? (5/23/19)I got this letter as an equity-holder from Little Sioux Corn Processors ethanol company: "Dear Owner, For the first time in 20 years — 20 years!!! — in 2018 ethanol use in the U.S. went down. And it went down as a direct result of small refinery exemptions from the RFS granted by former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt. ...
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Time for Trump to fix what he created (5/16/19)President Donald Trump does not want inflation or higher commodity prices. Those things bother the Federal Reserve and cause them to tighten monetary policy, increasing interest rates and we know how he feels about that. He has been doing a very good job of holding commodity prices down as every time the price of oil recovers, he jawbones it back lower again. ...
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RFS death by RIN waiver (5/9/19)It was 2015, when Eric Branstad, Gov. Terry Branstad's son, was head of America's Renewable Future, a pro-ethanol group that lobbied candidates running for the nomination for president in Iowa. Trump wanted to win the Iowa caucuses and knew that Terry Branstad was a strong ethanol supporter. ...
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The flaw is in partisanship (4/25/19)I have been surprised at how many times that Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley's name comes up in my report. He is very much engaged in the legislative and political process in Washington. He is the president of the Senate and chairman of the Finance Committee which gives him much power in Congress. ...
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Vinegar and the sum of trade progress (4/18/19)President Donald Trump uses vinegar to get what he wants but rarely any sugar. He is more inclined to use a sledgehammer to beat what he wants from whom he wants it from, and then if they resist, he beats them again. That is why agriculture and ethanol groups are afraid to challenge Trump in spite of his having the most damaging RFS and trade policy for the agriculture sector in modern history. ...
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Autonomy of the Federal Reserve (4/11/19)One characteristic of the Donald Trump presidency has been the challenge of American institutions in some of the most heretofore bedrock ways that they operate. I am not a guardian of the status quo when they find something better, but that is not what has been challenged. ...
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The CommStock Report (4/4/19)Percentages can be misleading. Talk of 500 farm bankruptcies, a 90% increase from last year, attracted attention but there were over 11 times that many annually during the worst of the Farm Crisis of the 1980s. It wouldn't sound so bad if they said that farm bankruptcies in 2018 were just 8.6% of 1987 levels. ...
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Backstabbing the ethanol industry (3/28/19)I was told by a director of the Iowa Corn Growers that at a meeting they discussed my recent reports where I had noted that the National Corn Growers Association is dropping the ball in pushing back against President Donald Trump personally on renewable identification number waivers. ...
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Capitalism in Iowa agriculture (3/22/19)I heard an interview with New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio where, referring to wealth disparity in the U.S., he said “There was plenty of money ... It was just in the wrong hands." That is a pretty categorically strong statement that if you have wealth somehow you hadn't earned it, and it was wrong you had it while others did not. That is a profound statement of socialism...
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Who benefits from GDP growth? (3/14/19)The U.S. Commerce Department says that the economy grew by 2.9 percent last quarter and 2.6 percent for last year. President Donald Trump was disappointed. Anything less than 3 percent "was not his fault." He set the economy up for faster growth with a tax cut as fiscal stimulus and then the Fed pushed on the brakes with higher interest rates countering the fiscal stimulus with monetary policy. ...
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Bovine flatulence — seriously? (3/7/19)Billionaire Warren Buffet never got excited about farmland investment but his son Howard did. I think that Howard Buffet liked being called a farmer after writing the book "Forty Chances Finding Hope in a Hungry World." He was a bit off though or I am above average. He was referring to most farmers who grow crops for 40 seasons in their lives. 2019 will be my 46th crop and I had just as well go for an even 50...
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Liquid asset poor (2/28/19)One revelation highlighted by the recent government shutdown is just how many Americans are on the edge of being broke. Many get paid every other week because they need to be paid that often and if they miss one or two paychecks they have no money. They have no savings, they have no credit line, they have no banker to talk to, their parents may be just as tight on cash, they probably can't even get one of those high interest payday loans with no paycheck as collateral. ...
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The most accurate market forecast farmers will read (2/21/19)Part 2 of 2 Farmers do not want to hear that they may have to endure a few more years of tight margins before corn prices break out of the current trading range marked near 4.50 at the top of the range to become more profitable again. The 29-year corn price cycle suggests that a new base equilibrium period that can take a decade to form is required before supply and demand adjust to one another to become the next bull market in corn...
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This is the most accurate market forecast that I think farmers are going to read: (2/14/19)The chart that I have included in my annual outlook presentation longer than I can remember is the Purdue University 29-year corn price cycle. The corn price cycle starts with a base equilibrium lasting about a decade, followed by a launch when prices respond positively to having built a demand base, and then a spike higher when a drought or some other fundamental exacerbates supply and demand tightness stetting the price high for the cycle. ...
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The CommStock Report (2/10/19)My wife, Jane, has gotten me to occasionally watch the HGTV shows "Fixer Upper" with Chip and Joanna Gaines and the "Property Brothers" with Drew and Jonathan Scott. What fascinates me about those shows is the lack of imagination that people have who cannot picture something that is not explicitly in front of them. ...
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Is the economy real? (1/31/19)Is the economy real? President Donald Trump describes it in historical terms as the greatest economy that the country has ever experienced and then takes the credit of course. There are good numbers on the employment front, both high employment and growing wages. The tax cut is a windfall to those making money. Sure wish that we (farmers) could put it to better use...
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Slavery and the development of agriculture (1/25/19)Growing up in Iowa, I was relatively unexposed to the regional cultural differences of this great country. There was no racial diversity in Royal 50 years ago when I was a young man with a total white population here, mostly Danes and Germans. Everything we learned about race relations we saw on TV or experienced only by traveling to other regions of the country. ...
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Public perception of Iowa damaged by King (1/17/19)U.S. Rep. Steve King got more infamous while I was gone on vacation. He was one of the dominant story lines for a couple of national news cycle. It was his racist white supremacist comments that continued to bring the heat. He is the product of the openness that I believe was encouraged by Donald Trump for racist white supremacists to come out of the closet, making their views public. ...
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What does Smirnoff vodka have to do with agriculture? (1/10/19)Over the Christmas holiday I watched Smirnoff vodka television commercials touting a new non-GMO label for its vodka. First off, Smirnoff is Russian vodka and Russians are drunks and lying S*!s. Smirnoff vodka was developed by Vladimir Smirnoff after escaping Russia after the October Revolution. Vodka nearly destroyed Russia and maybe still will. Smirnoff vodka is actually owned and distributed today by a British company but that conflicts with my narrative. It is still Russian...
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A fox guarding the RFS henhouse (1/3/19)From a subscriber: "I asked my local Cenex manager why the price of E85 was still high. E10 has dropped 43 cents in the last couple of months and E85 hasn't changed from $1.94. He told me that the RIN price has often been close to 60 cents but now is only 9 cents. ...
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Farmers being misled? (12/27/18)Time may be running out for both sides in trade talks between the U.S. and China. The Chinese economy is weakening and there are many bubble aspects to it that Beijing is aggressively trying to manage so they do not burst. What they are doing is attempting a soft landing from what has been a historic period of really unprecedented economic growth in that country impacting the world. ...
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Santa Claus is sexist (12/20/18)How can I say this without sounding too "liberal?” Santa Claus is sexist. I know because I have done my research on the subject. Last year I gave my wife a really sharp Santa Claus statue for Christmas. She loves Christmas decor and a local store had a first-class Santa Claus that stood about 2 feet tall. ...
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Economic corrections: History rhymes (12/13/18)Agriculture input suppliers are worried about the sour mood that many farmers have regarding the outlook. That makes them more reluctant to open their pocket books and spend. Commodity market outlook meetings can be a rather dismal exercise that can cause some long faces. I like to add some humor to it as a saving grace which is why I have a couple good slides in my outlook presentation that give rise to a few chuckles. It may be a slog but we will get through this...
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National Climate Assessment Report (12/7/18)What was officially known as the Fourth National Climate Assessment report, which is a multi-federal agency congressionally mandated report, was released last Friday. It elicited a broad varied response, much of which was predictable. It in general supported the premise of there being a human contribution to climate change and offered that an aggressive response is needed in order to mitigate the risks. The president's response to the warning was "I don't see it.”...