It was a long time coming but 2021 was the year that the hog industry was sorely in need of. It had been a while since those owning hogs had something to celebrate at the end of a year. There were some phenomenal profits at points during the year for hog producers that they sorely needed in order to heal up from previous losses. ...

There is something personal about Elon Musk that makes me leery of him, whether it is buying a Tesla or taking his advice on cryptocurrencies. But when he is right, he is right. Time Magazine's' Man of the Year says that "civilization is going to crumble" if we don't have more children. ...

Giving modern medicine the credit that it is due This report starts out about me. I am a baby boomer and due to the wonders of modern medicine I am still surviving all of my attempts to die young (some would not think of 69 as old, but I get called grandpa a lot). ...

I have been living in the past in order to share with you what an inflation cycle looks like. In the 1970s, banks and lenders fueled the inflation cycle with free-flowing credit and an almost criminal lack of adherence to lending standards. They were handing out cash in the form of loans that supported demand that manifested itself into inflation. ...

OK, let's go down the rabbit hole that everyone has crowded into … including many who have no idea what they are talking about because they have only read about inflation in history books and never experienced it themselves. My wife and I were recently in Brookings, South Dakota, heading to our new office in Watertown in a snowstorm. ...

The Gaylon Lawrence family is reported by my sources to be the second largest farmland owner in the U.S., behind Bill Gates. When the Lawrence Group began buying farmland here in northwest Iowa this year, the first blush was that Delta LLC sounded corporate and therefore how are they circumventing Iowa's limitation of corporate ownership buying farmland? The answer is that the Laurence Group is not Cargill, Monsanto or John Deere … it’s the Lawrence family. ...

Farmland auctions have become prolific. Almost with each new farmland auction here locally, a new high for values is being set. Just recently, 80 acres that was high quality CSR2, but described as "needing tile," sold at auction for $17,500 per acre near Royal. ...

The momentum behind biofuels has shifted during the transition to the Biden administration but growth is still there going in different directions. There are things that the administration has not done, such as announce volumetric targets for the RFS in a timely manner. ...

Why Theodore Roosevelt's image is carved into Mount Rushmore The Democrats are in the process of crafting what will serve as President Joe Biden's Build Back Better plan. It will be a plethora of new progressive social programs paid for by higher taxes applied progressively. ...

The tension between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan continues to grow in real time. China announced a successful test of a hypersonic missile while three U.S. tests of similar missiles were reportedly not as successful (they evidently did not steal that intellectual property from us). ...

Cornell University says that there have been 185 labor strikes so far this year which is a "labor awakening" when compared to recent history. There are "now hiring" signs on just about every business facade across the country as companies attempt to attract needed workers. ...

Hard to say where I stand relative to luck these days but I have been getting to participate in some of the issues of the day. I joined the New Cooperative, just in time via their merger with Maxyield Cooperative in July, so that Russian hackers allegedly may have my financial information. ...

The interest in decarbonizing our society is surging in popularity as investors and advocates look for ways to reverse the impact of climate change. This trend is being propelled by Wall Street investors who have seen the success of companies like Tesla and Impossible Foods. ...

As a response to the economic shocks of the pandemic, our government and central bankers has been shoveling both fiscal and monetary stimulus into the economy to fill the massive hole created by the catastrophe in unprecedented quantities. For the most part … it worked, at least in the sense that the economy has temporarily recovered. ...

Severe illness and death from COVID-19 and COVID variants are now preventable. The simple prevention is a vaccination that is fully approved by the CDC and FDA. Hospitals and ICU wings have not surged beyond capacity with patients suffering side effects from the vaccine. ...

There is much not to understand about the current state of the U.S./global economy or at least not to like in the apparent answers. Who is it that is willing to borrow so many dollars to others at such low interest rates given a fundamental outlook that frankly just does not support rates at such low levels? Global Central banks including the Federal Reserve of course. ...

A subscriber expressed what I think is the opinion of many when he responded to the U.N. Climate Change Warning, "I have zero faith in anything the United Nations says or does.” Zero is probably too low but I get where he is coming from. I probably have 50% faith as their conclusions do often take more bias into consideration than for just the common good. ...

I think that the CommStock Report posted April 22 on Afghanistan covered it pretty well at the time, and nothing turned out better than I had suggested. The date of the final withdrawal got changed from Sept. 11 to Aug. 31 by President Joe Biden and then was accelerated again by the Taliban. ...

Most corn/soybean farmers do not have a lot of direct labor costs but they have indirect labor costs. Those that move farm production to markets and provide inputs to farmers have seen shipping and labor costs rise so they are not netting all of the increase that they are asking in their products. ...

Whenever there is a drought, flood, hurricane, wildfires or some other form of weather tragedy, it has now become immediately linked to climate change. I am not contesting that climate change is occurring or that it is linked to human activity but many of these things would have occurred regardless. ...

There is a $1,000-plus profit per steer that – because packers have unbalanced market power – ranchers and feedlots are missing out on entirely. It has not always been like this. It is a relatively recent development that became extenuated after the Tyson Kansas plant fire. ...

I never ever thought that I would ever say something like this, but earlier this month retail beef prices "got way too high." I walked up to the Hy-Vee meat counter, and after looking at their pricing, I had to ask myself, "Who in the world would pay that much for beef?" First I was floored, and then I got angry. ...

The cure for high prices is high prices, as high prices typically destroy enough demand so that supply doesn’t run out while they encourage producers to add supply. End-users have to see margins shrink and go negative before they curtail usage. If they are making money they have no reason to use less. ...

I spoke to my first group face to face in Emmetsburg, Iowa, for Farm News post-pandemic. It was open air at a fairgrounds and all there, like me, looked old enough to have been vaccinated. It was a cool early morning and it felt really good to do something besides Zoom. ...

After experiencing a string of very wet years here in northwest Iowa, conditions are now swinging to the opposite. Our soil moisture reserves are as low on June 23 as I ever remember them being on this date in 48 crop seasons. Rains to date have not recovered declining soil moisture levels. ...

This time I have good news and more good news. It has been a long time since we have been able to start out like that. The good news is that farm profitability this year is almost assured. Production rather than price should be the primary determinant of profitability. ...

The ethanol industry, so far, has been handling $7 corn pretty darn well. Little Sioux Corn Processors summed it up, "It seemed like all we heard in 2020 was discouraging news. COVID-19 was ravaging our economy in the U.S. and the world. Fuel consumption declined rapidly, which adversely affected ethanol demand, forcing plants to shut down, and product inventories to explode. ...

The big news after the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is that Greg Abel, who resides in Des Moines Iowa, is taking over as CEO of BH. Buffett and Munger are both concerned over keeping the company's culture intact as they turn over control. Abel, a Canadian, has been described as "down to earth," not out to make headlines for himself and will let the company's performance make the headlines for him. ...

Warren Buffett never professed to care a great deal about owning farmland. He favored buying stocks. His son, Howard, who considers himself to be a farmer, feels differently. Howard's book, "40 Chances: Finding Hope in a Hungry World" suggests that is about how many seasons we have to achieve our goals in life. ...

"And then there's the threat posed by fake meat." The fad of veganism was not going anywhere fast because there was no tasteful alternative to meat. The rise of new "plant-based" meat alternatives provide an alternative on the menu for vegans … but the products that exist today are unlikely to promote conversion to vegan diets. ...

Most agriculture producers are doing well today … with the exception of cattle producers. As a former cattleman who promoted the industry, with a family still much involved in the industry and someone who identifies with cattle production, I will discuss what I believe is the most profound threat facing the cattle industry. ...

In order for a farmer to have had first-hand experience with inflation, he would need to be over 60 years old, having farmed prior to 1980. Farmers under 50 have only seen deflation interrupted by brief periods of relief rallies. I began farming in 1973, when inflation was the economic reality and not just some concept. ...

President Joe Biden wants to pay for his $2 trillion-plus infrastructure spending by raising taxes to make it as budget neutral as possible. They are throwing out many different possibilities for tax hikes to see what will stick. Their crowd funding tax hike proposed, so to speak, would include an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%, up from the current 21%. ...

Finally … the talk of the country is about an infrastructure proposal. While President Joe Biden's infrastructure proposal will be gone over with a microscope, my approach is to describe what it looks like looking down at it from 50,000 feet up. If you are standing too close to an elephant you cannot tell it's an elephant so let's start with the big picture. ...

U.S.-Chinese relations are deteriorating. That is no revelation but a recognition of the current trend. There is still push and pull in the geopolitical relationship between the two largest economies but the trend of public opinion in the U.S. is shading ever darker toward China. ...

Frankly, the way that I see it, President Joe Biden is using the filibuster to limit the power of the left wing of his party. In my opinion Biden is a moderate and if all of the crazy things progressives are willing to die on their sword for were enacted there would be a backlash sweeping them from power. ...

The strongest hurdle determining what can be legislated in Washington is the U.S. Senate. When the Democrats won both Georgia seats in the senatorial runoff election, it had huge consequences on the balance of power in Washington. The party in control is the gatekeeper deciding what gets a vote and what doesn't. ...

U.S. immigration policy lacks consensus. That is an understatement. The issue was the big voter getter for the previous president who inflamed passions igniting controversy more than solved any problems with it. While many liked his Steven Miller hardline approach there was never a majority who supported building a wall or separating children from families at the border. ...

A close relative, who lives in a retirement home, is very angry that many of the staff there will not get vaccinated for COVID-19. They refused when given the opportunity. It was staff that was believed to have brought the virus into her home where it spread generating a number of positive cases among the residents resulting in some deaths. ...

There is as many opinions as there are over anything political toward the minimum wage. A CNBC economic survey found that 59% supported a $15 minimum wage or more. That support is in spite of the belief that it will lead to higher prices and cost some jobs. ...

Despite all of the government aid given farmers to compensate for trade and pandemic losses, there is still some segment of agriculture industries where producers fail financially. The previous round of bankruptcies came from the dairy industry, as it experienced a structural shakeout not too dissimilar to what the hog industry went through before it. ...

With all of the talk over how the U.S. is going to replace combustible engines with electric vehicles, here in northwest Iowa I rarely ever see one nor know where I would go to charge one if I owned one. The cold temperature extreme we just experienced may be one reason why. ...

Former President Donald Trump alluded to U.S. trade deficits as theft from us. When other countries sold us more that we bought from them he always described it as the U.S. being taken advantage of. He promised to stop that steal and reverse the trend of growing trade deficits, rebuild rust-belt factories and communities and bring the jobs taken overseas back to America. ...

Most farmers missed the memos in August and during the fall that USDA was lowballing Chinese grain/soy demand while high balling the 2020 corn/soybean yields. After a period of depressed prices, the rebound from lows appeared to them to be an opportunity that attracted much selling. ...

The Biden administration is multitasking. Yeah, they have crushing the pandemic as job No. 1 but they are also pursuing a new climate agenda throughout the government. They can do that because while the president sets the agenda, he delegates authority to subordinates (new direction). ...

All debt doesn't weigh the same density. The philosophical adage of it being better to teach someone to fish rather than give them one translates into something even more intense if you are borrowing the money to do it. The concept that you can just borrow and borrow into ad infinitum and hand out fish, even to some that are not hungry and already have enough fish, when you are borrowing the fish is a false premise...

The late Sen. Everett Dirksen from Illinois, who was the GOP senate minority leader in the 1960s, was the last of the fiscal conservatives with quotes attributed to him including, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money" "I have said, with respect to authorization bills, that I do not want the Congress or the country to commit fiscal suicide on the installment plan." "Here we are considering an amendment increasing an already huge appropriation by $1 billion. ...

The FBI has classified the rioters that participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol as "terrorists." The reason that they can do that is that the thugs did a great job of sharing what they did via social media. The FBI has evidence of the crimes on tape, so to speak. ...

After a Christmas discussion with my son-in-law, who is trained in culinary arts and previously worked as an executive chef for multiple restaurants in the Des Moines area, I asked for his input on the implications of the pandemic on the food/restaurant sector … as they use a lot of our agriculture production in various ways. Multiply what he says nationwide. Read below...

The COVID-19 pandemic that has ravaged the nation has put our food supply chain to the test. While it rocked and rolled for a period of time, it responded with some remarkable resiliency to the pressures and challenges. The food supply chain that is functioning today is much different than the one preceding the pandemic. ...

“Operation Warp Speed” did give COVID-19 vaccine a boost in reaching the public but it was far from being the “Manhattan Project,” in terms of government producing a new technological achievement. Pfizer is the first company to get a vaccine cleared through FDA and the contribution of the federal government to it reaching the regulatory process could be termed as, "not much."...

On Dec. 7, 1941, 2,403 Americans died in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Yamamoto wrote, "I fear that all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with resolve." He understood how that Americans would respond, with an immediate declaration of war on Japan and Yamamoto didn't live to see his prediction come true. He knew of the resources, both human and physical, that this country could bring to bear when focused on an enemy...

I did not sense a great change in November but the Creighton Rural Main Street Index took an unhealthy dip, falling from 53.2 in October to 46.8 this month. Did anyone get the license number of the truck that just hit us? The Farm Economic Confidence Barometer hit a new high recently. ...

It's after Nov. 4. The president had promised that we would no longer be talking about the COVID pandemic because it would just go away after the election. Has any prediction ever been more wrong? COVID positives are up near 200,000 per day. At that rate the country in on track toward herd immunity without vaccines. ...

Why did people vote the way that they did? Depends on who “they” is? I can tell you why many rural constituents voted the way that they did. My county in northwest Iowa voted 66% for Donald Trump, 2 out of every 3 people met on the street voted for Trump. ...

The election mechanics appear to have gone off very well. Only losers and Russians would complain. I think that it is good for everyone to vote. Not everyone shares that opinion. A lot of effort in this country gets put into suppressing targeted areas and groups from exercising voting rights. ...

A Democratic sweep of the election would fix some problems and create some new ones. I am not delusional in thinking that the 2020 election is the elixir to cure all that ails the agriculture sector. The election comes first and the policy later. So, what is going to change if the Democrats sweep this election … controlling the White House and both bodies of Congress? First off, they will enact whatever COVID-19 aid/stimulus bill that they have determined is needed. ...

COVID-19 is the “China virus.” That is where it originated from. It became the pandemic of this century infecting the circumference of the world spreading illness, death and economic destruction testing each country's ability to manage and cope. The U.S., having some of the most developed institutional infrastructure and advanced medical resources would be expected to have handled the pandemic well. ...

I guess that I must be almost the exception today as I made a conscious choice a long time ago to limit my participation in the social media. I have never had a Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Pinterest, TikTok or any other social media account. I have had many reasons for not doing so. ...

No, I am not going to be nice ... I am not feeling the least bit nice about anything pertaining to the pandemic. I sincerely hope that President Donald Trump recovers, as I want him alive and cognizant when he goes to prison, but if he does not his death could be ruled "suicide by arrogance."...

As of Sept. 20, the top six states where new COVID-19 cases were climbing most and staying higher were North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Arkansas Oklahoma and Iowa. Of those states, new deaths were also increasing in North Dakota and South Dakota. ...

Now is the time when the agriculture media tries to inform farmers of the differing policies of the two presidential candidates. Farm polls show that farmers have already made up their minds favoring Donald Trump. FarmProgress.com asked the campaigns to respond to 10 different questions dealing with the usual subjects except for one — taxes. For some reason they left out something important to me. I think that their tax policy is more important than some of the questions that they did ask.

Dr. Austin Baeth specializes in internal medicine at Unity Point Methodist Hospital in Des Moines. That is the same hospital that my granddaughter now works for as a genetics counselor. She was watching Baeth on CNN in her office telling the world what was going on in Iowa with the COVID-19 pandemic. ...

In sequential reports we have outlined how the global competition for agriculture exports has ramped up and that the U.S. has lost the "initiative" that we once had in soybean, wheat and corn export markets. Brazil, Ukraine and Russia have capitalized on structural issues scaling up production using currency advantages to grow market share at our expense. ...

Lula da Silva was elected president of Brazil and served from January 2003 through 2010. Da Silva was a leftist who ran 3 times for president before getting elected. There were many in Brazil who thought that he was a communist and worse, and the markets there responded very defensively to the prospect of his election. ...

In my son Matthew's Brazilian safrinha corn production costs laid out in Part 2 of our special report Plan C, I had Matthew attribute a percentage of the rent/land cost to corn relative to the percent of revenue of the two crops, corn following soybeans. ...

My son, Matthew Kruse, has grown corn in Brazil although it was single crop corn in Bahia. His in-laws have grown both single and second crop safrinha corn in Minas Gerais. He has many contacts who grow safrinha in the Mato Grosso. I read recently where Ag Resources said that Brazilian corn farmers were locking in a 50% return on 2021 safrinha corn production. ...

Do you remember Plan B? I was concerned about the growing competitiveness of Brazil 20 years ago. They were the up and coming soybean producing competitor. My idea was to use the loan rate in the farm program to support our soybean price and roll acreage from corn into soybeans so that we would temporarily flood the global market with cheap soybeans and crush Brazils fledgling soybean industry. ...

Right, wrong or otherwise there is a public perception out there that U.S. farmers are a Trump constituency that has been subsidized for political reasons with taxpayer money. I believe that there were valid economic reasons for payments that we got but not all of the support was bipartisan or funded by Congress. ...

A businessperson, when informed that they were eligible for a PPP loan/grant, expressed their surprise to me over getting government money with the exclamation, "Just like the farmers?" Yeah ... just like the farmers. Small business has seen farmers get subsidy checks for years without being included. ...

President Donald Trump is finally getting some political help from the monument hating extreme that is out there. They are going too far in their protest of monuments and he will benefit from the backlash. Polls show that the majority of Americans, 58%, say that they should knock it off, this defacing and removing historical statues. ...

Dr. Anthony Fauci lamented that states opened too soon. He is pretty much being muzzled right now by the White House as he is an inconvenient truth they do not want to be reminded of. He is a testament to those that made the poor decisions when they blew off his advice when reopening. ...

President Donald Trump has had the worst biofuel and trade policies that I have ever seen and came with the most farm subsidies ever because of it. When elected I thought "well at least his ethanol policy would be better." I was not thrilled with ethanol policy under Barack Obama. ...

Many know that our home office in Royal almost doubles as a Civil War/ Theodore Roosevelt museum. It is nothing overly extensive but I do have some original items. I had long displayed a replica Confederate battle flag in one corner of my office opposite the U.S. ...

We are still the world's only superpower but in the past few years we have pulled back from our previous role as leader of the global order to an “American First” geopolitical strategy. Our old allies in the previous global order are alarmed with us saying that they no longer recognize us. ...

I think you can ask most any farmer if he wants socialism and you will get a "No"…"He!! No" or something even more negative than that answer from them. They have it in their narrative of the country that the urban liberal Dems are socialists who live in their basement and expect the government to take care of them. ...

Last week was a watershed week that I think will take months or even years to truly understand the significance of. I know that I am still processing. It started out with an event that I think most of the country had the same reaction to with the public execution of George Floyd and by the end of the week it had devolved into a raging culture war where everyone had retreated into their prospective pre-established political camps. ...

The headline, "Trump has peaceful protestors teargassed to clear them for photo-op,” was likely the headline of the week. He praised peaceful protestors while ordering his troops, actually having Attorney General Bill Barr give the orders, to fire rubber bullets, tear gas and physically attack peaceful protestors in front of the White House, who were breaking no laws to be there, all the while touting that he is a law and order president...

For most of my life the U.S. agriculture sector has been feeding the world. It has been the cutting edge of innovative, sustainability and productivity for food production that the rest of the world envied. Granted, we have some unusually exceptional resources and natural logistics in the heartland that has given us the competitive advantage as the bread-basket of the world. ...

A Feedstuffs magazine headline read "Ag economists warn against overreaction to meat industry structure." What does that mean? The livestock and packing industries have been in a constant state of restructuring for decades that has resulted in concentrating the market leverage with packers. ...

One of the ways to determine what is fake news and what is not, is when the media writes about something that you know the facts about so that you know what the truth is. Were they accurate or not? The New York Times wrote an article recently, "Pork Chops vs. ...

A recent CommStock report, "Test all packing plant workers and their families" brought out a response from an industry insider telling me that testing is exactly what they are doing or attempting to do. For purposes of explanation I am going to make you the top-level management of a packing plant so that we can tell the story of what you have been going through...

I am a little surprised that there has not been more concern expressed over the ramification of everything going on relative to our national security, both general and energy security. In another update on the USS Theodore Roosevelt … the investigation now leads them to believe that the ship did not pick up COVID-19 during their port call in Vietnam but from the flight crew. ...

We are so very lucky to live where we do. We have roofs over our heads, living mostly in single-family dwellings. We are not stuffed in crowded apartment buildings or worse yet in highly concentrated population areas where folks are on top of one another. ...

A few days ago, President Donald Trump brought up the expectations for mortality from COVID-19 in the U.S. in his press conference, claiming to have just seen the numbers for the first time. If true, then CommStock Report subscribers had a look at them before the president of the U.S. ...

Do you know what our biggest problem is? Let me tell you. Low prices cure low prices. At least that is how the market is supposed to work. Our problem however, is that COVID-19 short-circuits market signals disconnecting critical market forces so that despite low prices, consumers cannot access markets to take advantage of low prices offered them. ...

When U.S. Airways flight 1549 took off from LaGuardia airport in January 2009 piloted by Captain Chesley Sullenberger, "Sully," it was a nice day and he had every reason to expect that he would reach his destination. While my life was not in danger, I felt a little bit like Sully must have felt that morning in the past few weeks relative to the corn market. ...

Russia and the Saudis have hit us when we (our shale oil and biofuel industries) were vulnerable from a global recession with their crude oil price war. Their crude oil price war will leave a mark. The global economic slowdown will reduce world oil consumption by 10 million barrels a day or more. ...

As I passed through the Atlanta airport the other day, I grabbed lunch at Panda Express. I noticed next to their menu a big sign declaring how they only use organic honey. According to the USDA, the main prerequisite for being considered organic honey versus natural honey is that the flowers the bees use for nectar cannot be sprayed with any chemicals nor can the bees be located adjacent to an area that may have potential contact with chemical use. ...

Imagine for a moment that you work in a highly competitive, trillion-dollar industry. You are but one of a thousand competitors, vying for attention from millions of uninformed and unsuspecting consumers. Your objective is to make your product stand out among a large sea of fairly consistent, uniform products. ...

One of the best stories to come out of the Iowa caucuses had to do with Elizabeth Warren. She, of course, has been promoting canceling student loans up to $50,000 per person and was offering free college tuition paid by the government. An Iowan approached her after one of her events and told her that his daughter was graduating from college and that due to his saving for her tuition that she would not have any student loans. ...

You have heard criticism that the Democrats were trying to overturn the votes of 63 million who elected Trump in the last election via impeachment. I don't think that the GOP-controlled Senate will let that happen however they seem to have missed the fact that the votes of 63 million overturned the votes of 66 million in 2016. ...

How would the economy have performed if Hillary Clinton would have been elected president? Assuming that she would have governed like she said during the campaign I think that it was very likely that we would be recovering from another recession about now. ...

Climate change, CO2 man-made influence is no longer a debate. The consensus of evidence has become overwhelming. The Pentagon, NOAA, NASA, insurance companies, corporations, investors and even the WSJ have all moved beyond debating whether man-made climate change is a threat to human existence to how to modify our climate by altering practices so as to reduce the negative human influence on the climate. ...

Climate change deniers in the U.S. probably should keep an eye on what is happening in Australia politically as a result of the historic wildfires that are ravaging the country. Australia had to mobilize military reserves to handle the relocation of people resulting from an area twice the size of Switzerland (25 million acres) or two West Virginias being on fire. ...

We get an up close and personal view of the Democratic presidential candidates because of our Iowa caucuses. There are frankly not a lot of rural Democrats where I live in the state and unless something dramatic happens Iowa will not be in play for the general election. ...

2019 was not what I would call a year that I want to remember or have fond memories over at the end, given my crops were planted on time yet still generated crop insurance claims. It doesn't matter what date they are planted on if the hail storm is intense enough. A high APH and RAMP crop insurance helped save the bottom line. So, let's shift and look back at the last decade of the 2010s as something being less painful to reminisce over while we try to forget 2019...

I come from a livestock family and married into one as well. When I grew up, we had dairy, layers, hogs and cattle on feed. I, myself, raised hogs and cattle. We adapted over time. The dairy went out first with the requirement for bulk milk handling the year that I graduated from high school. ...

According to USTR Robert Lighthizer, phase one of a trade deal with China is "totally done." I hope that the Chinese can come to Iowa, if not for the signing then at least to mend fences and nail down our new commercial trade relationship. A pivotal choice was made here with this trade agreement. ...

The recent death of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker brought back a flood of memories from the ag depression of the 1980s. It was life changing to have lived through something like that. I started farming in 1973 when we were in the throes of an inflation cycle. ...

Unless something changes fundamentally, agriculture revenue prospects do not look any better next year although it would be hard for the weather to be much worse. That doesn't seem to matter according to the Department of Agriculture who can always make the acres rise even though prevent-plant was a record. ...

Whenever I go to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, I make it a point to get a burger at Fuddruckers. I took my prospective son-in-law along who has trained in culinary school as a chef and he declared the burger to be one of the best he has ever had. I am in mourning as they closed the Fuddruckers in West Des Moines. My daughter in law is not a burger-fan but even she makes an exception for Fuddruckers. That is enough of a free commercial...

Democrats seem to think that what they need to sell farmers on is the need for cover crops and carbon sequestration. These are as much just talking points as anything else, politically correct agriculture, but if they are more than that, we should soon find out as adoption is tested. Farmers will accept innovation and incentives but force them to do something and you will lose them...

President Donald Trump has not been good for U.S. Agriculture. No president has had worse trade, biofuel and immigration policies that impact the agriculture sector than this one. It was predicted accurately by me. I was told that I was wrong, but time and events have proved otherwise. ...

Postscript from the previous columns: I was most impressed by the quality and sophistication that the editors of Successful Farming and Farm Journal magazines put into their periodicals nearly a century ago. They were lengthy, thoughtful and intelligent on many topics. ...

I shared that both of the October 1928 issues of Successful Farming and Farm Journal magazines had ads enticing U.S. farmers into moving to Canada for better land, prices and opportunity and so on. How did that work out for those who took the bait? I can only assume not so well after the Smoot-Hawley tariff act. ...

The May 1927 issue of Farm Journal claimed to have 1.4 million subscribers making its readership larger than Successful Farming magazine's. It was smaller than SF magazine at only 74 pages. Farm Journal claimed to have been publishing for 57 years in 1927. ...

I have been fascinated by moments in history when something material took place of note that for whatever reason, disappeared so that almost no one today is cognoscente that it had existed. Few people have ever heard of a Winchester Store. They know of Winchester guns and ammo but in the 1920s Winchester built and operated a franchise hardware store system that reached 6,400 hardware stores before they filed bankruptcy in January 1930, a commercial failure of the Great Depression...

I am bullish. Those are three words that I enjoy. I turned bullish corn last May when I told you to "load the boat" but was cautions yet over turning bullish commodities in general because of a cycle low that was due in commodities this fall. I think that low has been set and that we will see gains in commodity prices into 2020. ...

President Donald Trump is airing campaign TV ads here in Iowa where the punch line is that he sells himself as "The Tough Guy." No doubt about it ... he has a look (scowl), a swagger, a mouth and a bad attitude where he will go to any length or depth to take on anybody he sees as a challenge, denigrating them in the meanest terms. ...

Staff Sgt. Clinton Romesha won the Medal of Honor for his combat in Afghanistan in 2009 for "conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty.” He has written the book "Red Platoon" to explain what happened to his unit there and he was our guest for a public speaking event at the Clay County Fair recently. I had the honor spending some time with him and interviewing him there...

Everyone that comes out of a meeting with President Donald Trump thinks that they had a "great" meeting and that he is on their side. He is the greatest BSer and is best at misleading folks that he is their ally when the only side he is ever really on is his own political self-interest...

U.S. agriculture is one of the most immigrant dependent industries in the U.S. for its labor force. Immigrants have historically been the labor engine for agriculture over the history of the nation regardless whether the servitude was involuntary or voluntary over that time. Only the ethnic groups and race of immigrants providing that labor force has changed. Today it is dominantly Hispanic with some Eastern European, African and Asian contribution. They tend not to be white...

What are you going to plant next year ... that is profitable? President Donald Trump's trade war has destroyed the soybean and cotton markets. Wheat is no better. Those that planted soybeans this year out of a desire to maintain crop rotations will be maintaining the burdensome carryover at considerable expense and if they continue to plant soybeans in 2020 the carryover will get worse. ...

When President Donald Trump thinks that he can order U.S. companies to leave their businesses in China, that is not free enterprise capitalism ... it is fascism. That is the kind of government interference and autocratic dictatorship of commercial activity that has only been practiced throughout history by fascist regimes. ...

What do Canadians think of Americans? They will not say that one of their traits is to be extremely polite. If they have nothing good to say, they remain quiet. They do note that they often hear of Americans saying that they would like to move to Canada. ...

Who is President Donald Trump going to blame a recession on? According to Fortune Magazine, the length of the current economic expansion has been record-breaking, lasting 121 months from June 2009 through July 2019 surpassing the second longest expansion of 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001. The reason was Trump's tax cut coming late in the business cycle which gave the economy another boost just as the recovery was tiring...

CBSN interviewed a Nebraska farmer who gave them the quote ... "I'm not a climate change guy, but. ...” That quote could be finished more than one way: "But for the weather we have been having." "But for what I have seen in my lifetime." "But for the frequency of crop insurance claims increasing." "But for the bomb cyclone." "But for the fact I am a Republican." Or "But for the fact I would get razed at the coffee shop if I admitted to believing in climate change."...

You start with some assumptions and compare them to what you know. There have been three lawsuits in which California juries have awarded damages to plaintiffs whose lawyers have successfully argued that their clients contracted cancer from contact with Roundup/glyphosate herbicide. ...

Every day I do a 40-minute commute through Clay and Dickinson counties in Iowa and besides the uneven crops this year what sticks out that is most apparent is the pristine weed control. Weeds are universally absent in the corn and soybean fields that look picture perfect creating the appearance that everyone is a great farmer here. There are a few milk-weeds in the ditches for the monarch butterflies but the ditches are clean of weeds too...

The reason that I am sharing my history of Roundup and life on the farm is that I and several family members and CommStock clients and friends participated in the filming of a documentary on the safety of Roundup/glyphosate. A documentary producer from California, Ariana Victor, and a three-man film crew spent most of a weekend here filming discussions between farmers, seed dealers, a farm manager, health care practitioner, a water quality specialist and Corn Growers board member on the topic of Roundup, safety and what its use means to the agriculture sector.. ...

Part 1 of a Series I was born in 1952 in Spencer, Iowa and my life on the farm near Royal, Iowa started before the Green Revolution. I went to college at SDSU in 1970 studying Agronomy and read how we were on the cusp of a worldwide famine due to a population explosion and that Agriculture as we knew it would be helpless to increase productivity enough to avoid it. ...

I see two things that President Donald Trump is really inflamed over that are obviously of extreme importance to him. One is the Federal Reserve increase in interest rates slowing his economic parade of growth. He is adamant in turning that around and jawboning the Fed into reducing interest rates to further support his strong economy. He realizes that his trade war weighs on the U.S. economy even though he says the opposite. He needs lower interest rates to offset that...

I will give it to President Donald Trump that he understands economic stimulus. There are essentially three kinds of economic stimulus: fiscal stimulus, regulatory stimulus and monetary policy. His tax cut was, of course, the fiscal kind. On the regulatory front, perception is as strong as reality and Trump oozes the perception that he cuts red tape. ...

Farmers are making the national news now ... in some good ways and some bad depending on perspective. The scope and magnitude of this spring wet weather event is starting to be understood by more people. Farmers are beginning to figure out that this was more than your garden variety regional planting delay and that it encompassed the entire U.S. Corn Belt and surrounding fringe areas. Words like "historical" and "unprecedented" should be used...

I went on eBay.com and bought a new USS John McCain baseball cap. I plan to wear it to honor John McCain who was a naval pilot shot down in Vietnam, captured there as a prisoner of war, who is a war hero, later becoming a profile in courage as a U.S. ...

There are a lot of people, businesses and entities that were pretty shaken up over President Donald Trump's plan to intimidate and essentially extort Mexico into shutting off our border to refugees coming from Central America. The U.S. and Mexican state departments met to discuss what Mexico had to do in order to make this new tariff threat go away, allegedly coming up with a plan that Trump claims has not all been made public. ...

There is a joke that goes something like: “The stock market is crashing on the announcement by NASA that an extinction size asteroid had been tracked on a collision course with the earth in a few days, but rebounded 400 points late session on a 25% increase in Apple earnings.” That is not a lot different than how the market traded recently on news that the trade war with China was being ramped up with more tariffs. ...

"It's the economy stupid" was the mantra for the Bill Clinton campaign to get him reelected to a second term as president, despite his many flaws. Donald Trump will modify that argument for his reelection slightly to, "Given the best economy in the history of the U.S. ...

I got this letter as an equity-holder from Little Sioux Corn Processors ethanol company: "Dear Owner, For the first time in 20 years — 20 years!!! — in 2018 ethanol use in the U.S. went down. And it went down as a direct result of small refinery exemptions from the RFS granted by former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt. ...

President Donald Trump does not want inflation or higher commodity prices. Those things bother the Federal Reserve and cause them to tighten monetary policy, increasing interest rates and we know how he feels about that. He has been doing a very good job of holding commodity prices down as every time the price of oil recovers, he jawbones it back lower again. ...

It was 2015, when Eric Branstad, Gov. Terry Branstad's son, was head of America's Renewable Future, a pro-ethanol group that lobbied candidates running for the nomination for president in Iowa. Trump wanted to win the Iowa caucuses and knew that Terry Branstad was a strong ethanol supporter. ...

I have been surprised at how many times that Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley's name comes up in my report. He is very much engaged in the legislative and political process in Washington. He is the president of the Senate and chairman of the Finance Committee which gives him much power in Congress. ...

President Donald Trump uses vinegar to get what he wants but rarely any sugar. He is more inclined to use a sledgehammer to beat what he wants from whom he wants it from, and then if they resist, he beats them again. That is why agriculture and ethanol groups are afraid to challenge Trump in spite of his having the most damaging RFS and trade policy for the agriculture sector in modern history. ...

One characteristic of the Donald Trump presidency has been the challenge of American institutions in some of the most heretofore bedrock ways that they operate. I am not a guardian of the status quo when they find something better, but that is not what has been challenged. ...

Percentages can be misleading. Talk of 500 farm bankruptcies, a 90% increase from last year, attracted attention but there were over 11 times that many annually during the worst of the Farm Crisis of the 1980s. It wouldn't sound so bad if they said that farm bankruptcies in 2018 were just 8.6% of 1987 levels. ...

I was told by a director of the Iowa Corn Growers that at a meeting they discussed my recent reports where I had noted that the National Corn Growers Association is dropping the ball in pushing back against President Donald Trump personally on renewable identification number waivers. ...

I heard an interview with New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio where, referring to wealth disparity in the U.S., he said “There was plenty of money ... It was just in the wrong hands." That is a pretty categorically strong statement that if you have wealth somehow you hadn't earned it, and it was wrong you had it while others did not. That is a profound statement of socialism...

The U.S. Commerce Department says that the economy grew by 2.9 percent last quarter and 2.6 percent for last year. President Donald Trump was disappointed. Anything less than 3 percent "was not his fault." He set the economy up for faster growth with a tax cut as fiscal stimulus and then the Fed pushed on the brakes with higher interest rates countering the fiscal stimulus with monetary policy. ...

Billionaire Warren Buffet never got excited about farmland investment but his son Howard did. I think that Howard Buffet liked being called a farmer after writing the book "Forty Chances Finding Hope in a Hungry World." He was a bit off though or I am above average. He was referring to most farmers who grow crops for 40 seasons in their lives. 2019 will be my 46th crop and I had just as well go for an even 50...

One revelation highlighted by the recent government shutdown is just how many Americans are on the edge of being broke. Many get paid every other week because they need to be paid that often and if they miss one or two paychecks they have no money. They have no savings, they have no credit line, they have no banker to talk to, their parents may be just as tight on cash, they probably can't even get one of those high interest payday loans with no paycheck as collateral. ...

Part 2 of 2 Farmers do not want to hear that they may have to endure a few more years of tight margins before corn prices break out of the current trading range marked near 4.50 at the top of the range to become more profitable again. The 29-year corn price cycle suggests that a new base equilibrium period that can take a decade to form is required before supply and demand adjust to one another to become the next bull market in corn...

The chart that I have included in my annual outlook presentation longer than I can remember is the Purdue University 29-year corn price cycle. The corn price cycle starts with a base equilibrium lasting about a decade, followed by a launch when prices respond positively to having built a demand base, and then a spike higher when a drought or some other fundamental exacerbates supply and demand tightness stetting the price high for the cycle. ...

My wife, Jane, has gotten me to occasionally watch the HGTV shows "Fixer Upper" with Chip and Joanna Gaines and the "Property Brothers" with Drew and Jonathan Scott. What fascinates me about those shows is the lack of imagination that people have who cannot picture something that is not explicitly in front of them. ...

Is the economy real? President Donald Trump describes it in historical terms as the greatest economy that the country has ever experienced and then takes the credit of course. There are good numbers on the employment front, both high employment and growing wages. The tax cut is a windfall to those making money. Sure wish that we (farmers) could put it to better use...

Growing up in Iowa, I was relatively unexposed to the regional cultural differences of this great country. There was no racial diversity in Royal 50 years ago when I was a young man with a total white population here, mostly Danes and Germans. Everything we learned about race relations we saw on TV or experienced only by traveling to other regions of the country. ...

U.S. Rep. Steve King got more infamous while I was gone on vacation. He was one of the dominant story lines for a couple of national news cycle. It was his racist white supremacist comments that continued to bring the heat. He is the product of the openness that I believe was encouraged by Donald Trump for racist white supremacists to come out of the closet, making their views public. ...

Over the Christmas holiday I watched Smirnoff vodka television commercials touting a new non-GMO label for its vodka. First off, Smirnoff is Russian vodka and Russians are drunks and lying S*!s. Smirnoff vodka was developed by Vladimir Smirnoff after escaping Russia after the October Revolution. Vodka nearly destroyed Russia and maybe still will. Smirnoff vodka is actually owned and distributed today by a British company but that conflicts with my narrative. It is still Russian...

From a subscriber: "I asked my local Cenex manager why the price of E85 was still high. E10 has dropped 43 cents in the last couple of months and E85 hasn't changed from $1.94. He told me that the RIN price has often been close to 60 cents but now is only 9 cents. ...

Time may be running out for both sides in trade talks between the U.S. and China. The Chinese economy is weakening and there are many bubble aspects to it that Beijing is aggressively trying to manage so they do not burst. What they are doing is attempting a soft landing from what has been a historic period of really unprecedented economic growth in that country impacting the world. ...

How can I say this without sounding too "liberal?” Santa Claus is sexist. I know because I have done my research on the subject. Last year I gave my wife a really sharp Santa Claus statue for Christmas. She loves Christmas decor and a local store had a first-class Santa Claus that stood about 2 feet tall. ...

Agriculture input suppliers are worried about the sour mood that many farmers have regarding the outlook. That makes them more reluctant to open their pocket books and spend. Commodity market outlook meetings can be a rather dismal exercise that can cause some long faces. I like to add some humor to it as a saving grace which is why I have a couple good slides in my outlook presentation that give rise to a few chuckles. It may be a slog but we will get through this...

What was officially known as the Fourth National Climate Assessment report, which is a multi-federal agency congressionally mandated report, was released last Friday. It elicited a broad varied response, much of which was predictable. It in general supported the premise of there being a human contribution to climate change and offered that an aggressive response is needed in order to mitigate the risks. The president's response to the warning was "I don't see it.”...