Final (?) Bowl Projections for Iowa, ISU

There's only one holdout left so far: John Tamanaha does bowl projections for NBC Sports and still has the Fiesta Bowl choosing Penn State.

The Sporting News guys have a different take on Iowa's opponent, however. They think the Orange Bowl will pass on TCU, which would send the Horned Frogs to Arizona against the Hawkeyes. Boise State would land in the Sugar instead.

A Nebraska win?

There's only one "X-factor" left - the Big 12 Championship. All of the projections below for Iowa and Iowa State anticipate a Texas win over Nebraska. If that happens, the SEC gets the first pick in the BCS bowl pecking order to replace the Alabama-Florida winner. The Fiesta Bowl would get the next pick to replace Texas - that's going to be a Big 10 team and it appears they like Iowa.

Once the Sugar and Fiesta replacement teams are selected, the bowls have their anchors and can begin choosing the second teams for their match-ups.

The order rotates. This season is Orange first, Fiesta second, Sugar third.

If Nebraska wins, the Cornhuskers get the automatic Big 12 bid and will be sent to the Fiesta Bowl as the conference anchor. Texas would move from the national championship game to the at-large pool.

Either TCU or Cincinnati would move into the national championship game and out of the at-large pool. TCU is non-BCS and the Big East doesn't have an anchor bowl for its champion, so the SEC's replacement pick is the only one needed if Nebraska wins. We're back to Orange-Fiesta-Sugar.

* With Texas now on the board, it's safe to assume the Orange jumps at the chance to take the Longhorns.

* The Fiesta still could (and probably would) take a Big 10 team with the next pick, but remember: It has Nebraska now. The Cornhuskers fill the bowl need for fans that travel well. Iowa is right next door. Is that regional match-up considered a drawback for television? If it is, Penn State creeps into the picture - JoPa, traditional powers, East Coast viewers, you have to wonder.

* The Sugar Bowl would be required to take the team that didn't jump over Texas in the national championship game - that would be TCU (for a BCS ranking of No. 4 or higher) or the Big East Champ.

Again the national projections don't factor in a Nebraska upset, so we don't know if the Fiesta's love for the Hawkeyes is unconditional. Just to be safe, Hawkeye fans should pull for the Longhorns. Boise State fans definitely are - Nebraska probably would take their spot.

Here's this week's look. More projections will be added as comments at the bottom as they come in. The bowl destinations are official with announcements Sunday night:

For Iowa

* CBS - Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4 (Glendale, Ariz.) vs. Boise State

* ESPN, Mark Schlabach - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* ESPN, Bruce Feldman - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* FOX, through Scout/College Football News - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State

* Sporting News, Matt Hayes - Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU

* Sporting News, Dave Curtis - Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU

* NBC sports, through College Football Talk's John Tamanaha - Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1 (Orlando) vs. LSU

Note: ESPN's Big 10 blogger Adam Rittenberg still has the Hawkeyes going to the Fiesta Bowl against a "BCS team."

Now, for the Cyclones.

Missouri's wild 41-39 win over Kansas kept the Jayhawks from becoming bowl eligible. The Big 12 has just enough bowl tie-ins for all of its eligible teams, although everyone would move up a notch if Nebraska upsets Texas and both teams get a BCS bowl spot.

Projections have Iowa State going to one of two bowls. The Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., has a potentially compelling match-up of Gene Chizik, the short-lived Iowa State coach against Paul Rhoads, a former defensive coordinator at Auburn. Kentucky is another potential opponent mentioned.

Apparent whispers out of Shreveport are: I-bowl officials would rather not have Iowa State a third time (they went in 2001 and 2004) in nine years.

Some bowl travel veterans think Houston and the Texas Bowl on New Years Eve is a better destination anyway. If the Cyclones land there, they already know who the opponent is. Navy has already accepted a bid.

* CBS - Independence Bowl, Dec. 28 (Shreveport, La.) vs. Kentucky

* Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel - Independence Bowl vs. Kentucky

* Sporting News, Dave Curtis - Independence Bowl vs. Kentucky

* ESPN, Mark Schlabach - Texas Bowl, Dec. 31 (Houston) vs. Navy

* ESPN, Bruce Feldman - Texas Bowl vs. Navy

* NBC sports, through College Football Talk's John Tamanaha - Texas Bowl vs. Navy

* FOX, through Scout/College Football News - Texas Bowl vs. Navy

ESPN's Big 12 blogger Tim Griffin projects Iowa State to the Independence Bowl. ESPN's SEC blogger, Chris Low, thinks the conference he covers would send Auburn there.

Note: Matt Hayes at the Sporting News only did BCS game projections. CBS replaced Auburn with Kentucky in its Independence Bowl projection on Tuesday.