Handicapping the finale

But, wow, the competition is tough. Thank goodness we don't have to say "Nashville Star" and "Coffey" in the same sentence.

We'll break down the three finalists.

Pros: He's the most radio ready of the three. As a songwriter you'd love for him to get a hold of your song. He's George Strait country, which will appeal to an older audience. This isn't your "American Idol" crowd phoning in results.

He's also the only guy left in the competition and voters had two powerhouses join him in the final as opposed to, say, the more subtle Ashlee Hewitt. He's going to provide more of a contrast.

Cons: He actually didn't give voters one of his better performances Monday night. He's always been a bit dull from a performance standpoint. This time his vocals seemed to lack some sparkle, too.

His personal biography isn't bad, but it's the hardest to sell of the three.

Gabe also appeared to be in the "bottom two" of last night's show. Does that mean he's fallen behind both ladies? He was my early pick to win it but...

Odds of winning: 35 percent

Pros: If Gabe is the most "radio ready," then Melissa is the most concert ready. Her vocals are more consistent than Shawn's. Only Gabe matches her in the consistency department. On top of that, she has more of a performance flair than Gabe does.

She also isn't your cookie-cutter music star. People will like that she's a "real person" with real priorities.

She's also getting the John Rich push -- big time. A standing ovation? She was good Monday night, but not that good.

The more people see and hear her, the more they've seemed to like her on the show.

Cons: In at least two different episodes, the judges have asked her if she can meet the demands of motherhood and a "Nashville Star" career. Either these industry professionals have some serious doubts about whether she can pull it off or they think the viewing audience does.

She's been a little cheesy from time-to-time and the Pat Benatar song "Hit Me With Your Best Shot" was a little karaoke. "Jesus, Take the Wheel." was a very crafty selection, however.

Odds of winning: 45 percent

Pros: This is easy. She has the momentum. For much of the season, she seemed to struggle just ahead of the eliminations. Over the past three weeks, however, her performances have put her right up there with Gabe and Melissa in quality. Think about presidential debates: Sometimes exceeding expectations -- surprising people -- is more important than bettering the other person on stage.

Shawn brings a younger vibe to the show that the other contestants left don't bring. Gabe and Melissa are more seasoned. That also means they aren't quite as fresh.

Shawn also is the best at showmanship of the three, but Melissa is close enough that it isn't a huge edge.

Both Melissa and Gabe are from the same part of the country. They may split the Texas vote.

Cons: She had to go first Monday night. That's been bad news for Ashlee and Coffey.

Let's face it: The judges will be disappointed if Shawn pulls an upset. They've loved Gabe and Melissa week-in and week-out. Shawn definitely won them over with her growth in July (hmmmm, did the mentor change help?) but it was a roller coaster season for our Nashville Star contender.

She also hasn't been as polished as the other two finalists, though she made huge, huge strides since the start of the competition. Are voters going to reward the body of work over the course of the season or are they going to reward who has improved the most from start to finish?

An upset isn't out of the question, but beating BOTH Gabe and Melissa? Tall task..

Odds of winning: 25 percent

Blog watch:

Mandi Bierly of Entertainment Weekly voted for Shawn. Lyndsey Parker, the music critic at Yahoo! likes her, too.